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. 2016 Sep 30;11(9):e0163916.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0163916. eCollection 2016.

Suitability Analysis and Projected Climate Change Impact on Banana and Coffee Production Zones in Nepal

Sailesh Ranjitkar  1   2 , Nani M Sujakhu  1 , Juerg Merz  3 , Roeland Kindt  4 , Jianchu Xu  1   2 , Mir A Matin  5 , Mostafa Ali  5 , Robert J Zomer  1   2
Affiliations

Suitability Analysis and Projected Climate Change Impact on Banana and Coffee Production Zones in Nepal

Sailesh Ranjitkar et al. PLoS One. .

Abstract

The Government of Nepal has identified opportunities in agricultural commercialization, responding to a growing internal demand and expansion of export markets to reduce the immense trade deficit. Several cash crops, including coffee and bananas, have been identified in the recently approved Agriculture Development Strategy. Both of these crops have encouraged smallholder farmers to convert their subsistence farming practices to more commercial cultivation. Identification of suitable agro-ecological zones and understanding climate-related issues are important for improved production and livelihoods of smallholder farmers. Here, the suitability of coffee and banana crops is analyzed for different agro-ecological zones represented by Global Environmental Stratification (GEnS). Future shifts in these suitability zones are also predicted. Plantation sites in Nepal were geo-referenced and used as input in species distribution modelling. The multi-model ensemble model suggests that climate change will reduce the suitable growing area for coffee by about 72% across the selected emission scenarios from now to 2050. Impacts are low for banana growing, with a reduction in suitability by about 16% by 2050. Bananas show a lot of potential for playing an important role in Nepal as a sustainable crop in the context of climate change, as this study indicates that the amount of area suited to banana growing will grow by 40% by 2050. Based on our analysis we recommend possible new locations for coffee plantations and one method for mitigating climate change-related problems on existing plantations. These findings are expected to support planning and policy dialogue for mitigation and support better informed and scientifically based decision-making relating to these two crops.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1. Banana and coffee plantation locations in Nepal.
Fig 2
Fig 2. Bioclimatic strata (GEnS), within the major bioclimatic zones (GEnZ) at the cultivation areas of banana and coffee in Nepal.
Overlap of color in the strata represents occurrence of both crops (EHM—extremely hot and moist; HD—hot and dry; HM—hot and mesic; WTM—warm temperate and mesic). GEnS is represented numerically (nominally arranged along an increasing average annual temperature gradient) in a range from 1–125. Banana and coffee plantations were found between strata 66–113.
Fig 3
Fig 3. Banana and coffee suitability zones based on ensemble output for current conditions (a and b) and for future (c-j).
Banana is represented by yellow colouring and coffee by brown.
Fig 4
Fig 4. Change in GEnZ in Nepal across four CIMP5 RCP scenarios compared to current conditions.
(CM—cold and mesic; CW—cold and wet; CTD—cool, temperate, and dry; CTM—cool, temperate, and mesic; ECM—extremely cold and mesic; ECW—extremely cold and wet; EHM—extremely hot and moist; HD—hot and dry; HM—hot and mesic; WTM—warm temperate and mesic; y-axis stands for percentage change).
Fig 5
Fig 5. Change in major production zones for a) banana and b) coffee in Nepal across four RCP scenarios compared to current conditions.
The dashed line indicates highest density of cells representing maximum suitable area in the baseline scenario and a dotted line indicates changes in suitable area and a shift in elevation in future scenarios compared to current suitable elevation. All the layers generated for baseline and future scenarios are available at http://landscapeportal.org/layers/.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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