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. 2021 May 25;118(21):e2023170118.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.2023170118.

Global abundance estimates for 9,700 bird species

Affiliations

Global abundance estimates for 9,700 bird species

Corey T Callaghan et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. .

Abstract

Quantifying the abundance of species is essential to ecology, evolution, and conservation. The distribution of species abundances is fundamental to numerous longstanding questions in ecology, yet the empirical pattern at the global scale remains unresolved, with a few species' abundance well known but most poorly characterized. In large part because of heterogeneous data, few methods exist that can scale up to all species across the globe. Here, we integrate data from a suite of well-studied species with a global dataset of bird occurrences throughout the world-for 9,700 species (∼92% of all extant species)-and use missing data theory to estimate species-specific abundances with associated uncertainty. We find strong evidence that the distribution of species abundances is log left skewed: there are many rare species and comparatively few common species. By aggregating the species-level estimates, we find that there are ∼50 billion individual birds in the world at present. The global-scale abundance estimates that we provide will allow for a line of inquiry into the structure of abundance across biogeographic realms and feeding guilds as well as the consequences of life history (e.g., body size, range size) on population dynamics. Importantly, our method is repeatable and scalable: as data quantity and quality increase, our accuracy in tracking temporal changes in global biodiversity will increase. Moreover, we provide the methodological blueprint for quantifying species-specific abundance, along with uncertainty, for any organism in the world.

Keywords: SADs; abundance; data integration; global biodiversity; rarity.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interest.

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
A methodological overview of our statistical approach to estimate species-specific abundances. (A) First, we modeled the relationship between relative abundance in eBird and the “true” density of a species in a given region. (B) We then collated data throughout the world, calculating relative abundance of each species in 5° grid cells. (C) We collated life history traits which were likely to influence the relationship between a species’ density and relative abundance. (D) We performed multiple imputation to impute density for missing species in each 5° grid cell throughout the world. (E) We calculated a weighted density for each species in which predicted density in every grid cell was weighted by the number of checklists in those corresponding grid cells. This helped to incorporate the heterogeneous distribution of densities throughout the world. We then adjusted these density estimates using a species’ range map to simulate an abundance distribution which incorporated measurement error and uncertainty.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
(A) The gSAD, calculated using the median of each species’ simulated abundance distribution and adding a constant 1 for those species predicted to have 0 abundance. (B) Examples of species’ simulated abundance distributions. Species shown from top to bottom are: Ring-billed Gull; Green Heron; Northern Wheatear; Ashy Prinia; Osprey; Acorn Woodpecker; Yellow-tailed Black-Cockatoo; and Midget Flowerpecker. (C) The total distribution of the number of individual birds in the world, calculated by summing all species-specific abundance distributions for 9,700 bird species (e.g., those from B). The average of all 9,700 global population estimates was 5.2 million, whereas the median was 450,000.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.
Phylogenetic representation at the (A) species, (B) family, and (C) order level showing the global abundance of individual birds in the world.
Fig. 4.
Fig. 4.
(A) The distribution of the number of individual birds, calculated by summing all species-specific abundance distributions (e.g., Fig. 2B) categorized within specific biogeographic realms (N = 9,178 species). (B) The SAD for each biogeographic realm, in which each species’ median abundance estimate is used. (C) The distribution of the number of individual birds, calculated by summing all species-specific abundance distributions (e.g., Fig. 2B) categorized within specific feeding guilds (N = 9,157 species). (D) The SAD for each feeding guild, in which each species’ median abundance estimate is shown. Species’ classifications were taken from ref. . The feeding guild of scavenger is not shown because very few species were assigned as scavenger.

Comment in

  • Reply to Robinson et al.: Data integration will form the basis of future abundance estimates.
    Callaghan CT, Nakagawa S, Cornwell WK. Callaghan CT, et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2022 Mar 8;119(10):e2117920119. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2117920119. Epub 2022 Mar 1. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2022. PMID: 35238636 Free PMC article. No abstract available.
  • Extreme uncertainty and unquantifiable bias do not inform population sizes.
    Robinson OJ, Socolar JB, Stuber EF, Auer T, Berryman AJ, Boersch-Supan PH, Brightsmith DJ, Burbidge AH, Butchart SHM, Davis CL, Dokter AM, Di Giacomo AS, Farnsworth A, Fink D, Hochachka WM, Howell PE, La Sorte FA, Lees AC, Marsden S, Martin R, Martin RO, Masello JF, Miller ET, Moodley Y, Musgrove A, Noble DG, Ojeda V, Quillfeldt P, Royle JA, Ruiz-Gutierrez V, Tella JL, Yorio P, Youngflesh C, Johnston A. Robinson OJ, et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2022 Mar 8;119(10):e2113862119. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2113862119. Epub 2022 Mar 1. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2022. PMID: 35238655 Free PMC article. No abstract available.

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