Annales d'Ethiopie, 2005, vol. XXI: 73-84
SOMALIA IN 2005: NO EXIT1 Ken Menkhaus
The year 2005 was expected to usher in a new era of peace and political rebuilding in Somalia. In October 2004, after fourteen years of state collapse, a two year peace process based in Kenya produced a Somalia Transitional Federal Government (TFG). 2 The establishment of the TFG was greeted with widespread though not universal enthusiasm in the international community. Skeptics pointed to a long track record of failed reconciliation in Somalia and argued that Somali political leaders have been prolific at declaring governments but uninterested in making them work. Still, there was considerable hope that after so many false starts and stillborn peace accords Somalia was at long last ending its national nightmare and embarking on the task of rebuilding. The African Union offered peacekeeping troops; the World Bank and bi-lateral donors began mobilizing foreign aid and coordination mechanisms with the new government; and regional states in IGAD offered diplomatic support, provided police training, and urged the international community to help the fledgling government.
As 2005 came to a close, however, the first-year report card for the TFG is painfully negative, and the litany of setbacks sobering. The government took seven months to relocate from Kenya to Somalia, and even then only under heavy pressure from Kenya. Due to insecurity, the TFG "capital" — i.e., the base for President Abdullahi Yusuf, Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Ghedi, and their supporters — is the small agricultural town of Jowhar. The TFG has split into two factions which in September 2005 came dangerously close to open warfare with one another. Neither the Parliament nor the full cabinet has met since March. External efforts to mediate the dispute have been rebuffed or undercut. The President has yet to set foot in the capital Mogadishu and spends most of his time abroad. The Prime Minister has narrowly escaped two assassination attempts in his infrequent visits to the capital. No progress has been made in establishing a civil service or minimally functional government at any level
1. This article is a revised, updated version of "Somalia: Governance without Government, Arms Conflict without War," in Africa Conflict, Peace, and Governance Monitor 2005. The author is grateful for permission to reprint the article in revised form. 2. The TFG is a government of national unity representing all clans and almost all major political factions. It features a 275 person parliament with seats allocated proportionally by clan, an 89 person cabinet, a President (Abdullahi Yusuf) elected by the Parliament, a Prime Minister (Ali Mohamed Ghedi) nominated by the President and approved by Parliament, and a Transitional Charter, which serves as an interim constitution for the duration of the five year transition period.
