Ranking of Countries' Risk
The graph below shows the estimated risk in the 10 countries with the most similar risk levels. Click and drag the graph to see risk estimates for other countries.
The length of the bar indicates the estimated risk. We consider countries ranked in the top 30 to be at high risk. Some countries at the bottom of the list appear to have no data; this indicates that their estimates are virtually indistinguishable from zero.
The model we use is given a set of about 30 risk factors (or variables), from which it chooses a set that are the most useful predictors. Based on the model, factors associated with greater risk of mass killing include history of mass killing, large population size, high infant mortality, ethnic fractionalization, high battle-related deaths, ban on opposition parties, existence of politically motivated killings, lack of freedom of movement, repression of civil society, and coup attempts within the last five years.
