Methodology: Risk Factor Sources

Basic Country Characteristics

Infant Mortality Rate

• Source: United Nations World Population Prospects 2024 | Transformed by EWP

New Country

• Indicates country is in its first, second, or third year since independence

• Early Warning Project, based on Kristian Skrede Gleditsch’s list of independent states

Number of Years Since Independence

• Early Warning Project, based on Kristian Skrede Gleditsch’s list of independent states

Population Size

• Source: World Bank World Development Indicators (SP.POP.TOTL);

  Maddison Project (pop) | Transformed by EWP

Region

• Africa, Americas, East Asia and the Pacific, Europe, Middle East and North Africa, South and Central Asia (Note: We code region as a set of dummy variables with Africa as the reference region. Thus, countries in Africa will be coded as zero on each of the five region variables.)

• Source: US Department of State

War and Conflict

Any Coup Attempts In Past Five Years

• Source: Powell & Thyne Coup d’Etat Dataset

Any Mass Killing (since 1945)

• Has the country (or its predecessor) experienced a mass killing onset since 1945?

• Source: Early Warning Project

Average Annual Rate of Mass Killing Onsets

• Source: Early Warning Project

Battle-Related Deaths

• Source: Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO); Uppsala Conflict Data Program | Transformed by EWP

Mass Killing Onset in 2023

• Was there a mass killing onset in this country in 2023?

• Source: Early Warning Project

Number of Ongoing Mass Killings

• Source: Early Warning Project

Ongoing Mass Killing(s) Targets Multiple or Broad Groups

• Does any ongoing mass killing in the state target multiple groups (ethnic, racial, national, or religious) or a broadly defined group (e.g., political opponents)?

• Source: Early Warning Project

Ongoing Mass Killing(s) Targets Exactly One Protected Group

• Do all ongoing mass killings in the state each only target exactly one ethnic, racial, national, or religious group?

• Source: Early Warning Project

Human Rights and Civil Liberties

Civil Society Repression

• Does the government attempt to repress civil society organizations (CSOs)?

• Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (v2csreprss_ord) | Transformed by EWP

Freedom of Discussion

• Are citizens able to openly discuss political issues in private homes and in public spaces?

• Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (v2xcl_disc)

Freedom of Religion

• Is there freedom of religion?

• Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (v2clrelig_ord)

Government Censorship

• Does the government directly or indirectly attempt to censor the print or broadcast media?

• Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (v2mecenefm_ord) | Transformed by EWP

Inequality in Civil Liberties — Geographic Region

• Is government respect (or lack of respect) for civil liberties equal across different geographic areas of the country?

• Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (v2clrgunev_ord) | Transformed by EWP

Inequality in Civil Liberties — Social Group

• Do some social groups—as distinguished by language, ethnicity, religion, race, region, or caste—have fewer civil liberties than others?

• Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (v2clsocgrp_ord) | Transformed by EWP

Percentage of Population Discriminated Against

• The percentage of the population that is coded as being discriminated against.

• Source: Ethnic Power Relations (EPR) Dataset

Political Killing

• Do political killings occur? Political killings are killings by the state or its agents without due process of law for the purpose of eliminating political opponents. These killings are the result of deliberate use of lethal force by the police, security forces, prison officials, or other agents of the state (including paramilitary groups).

• Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (v2clkill_ord) | Transformed by EWP

Prevention of Women’s Participation in Civil Society Organizations

• Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (v2csgender_ord) | Transformed by EWP

State Signatory of First Optional Protocol to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights

• Source: Ulfelder’s Country Memberships in Selected Intergovernmental Organizations and Accession to Selected Regional and Global Treaty Regimes; Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights

Governance

Judicial Reform

• Were the judiciary’s formal powers altered this year in ways that affect its ability to control the arbitrary use of state authority?

• Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (v2jureform_ord)

Minority Control

• Does a minority control political rule?

• Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (v2pepwrsoc_ord) | Transformed by EWP

Party Ban

• Are any parties banned?

• Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (v2psparban_ord) | Transformed by EWP

Power Distributed by Social Group

• Is political power distributed according to social groups?

• Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (v2pepwrsoc_ord) | Transformed by EWP

Power Distributed by Socioeconomic Position

• Is political power distributed according to socioeconomic position?

• Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM) (v2pepwrses)

Socioeconomic

Annual Percentage Change in GDP Per Capita

• Source: World Bank World Development Indicators (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG); Maddison Project (gdppc)

Ethnic Fractionalization

• A measure of ethnic heterogeneity

• Source: Historical Index of Ethnic Fractionalization (HIEF) Dataset (efindex); UCLA Anderson School of Management’s Ethnic Fractionalization Data (Alesina. et al. 2003)